Hounslow Borough Election Analysis

Hounslow Borough Election Analysis

Ward by ward run down suggests election could be close

Ward by ward analysis of voting in Ealing Borough

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A comprehensive analysis of Hounslow Borough on a ward by ward basis suggests that the result could be more in the balance than other pundits have predicted.

See table of analysis

The London Communications Agency in a recent study of London's boroughs predicted that Hounslow was likely to remain under Labour control with an outside chance of switching to no overall control.

However, since their analysis was published the candidates list has been published revealing what appears to be some co-ordination between the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives not to split the opposition vote in key marginal wards. Each party seems to have decided to field only one candidate in wards which the other is targeting.

In addition there have been a number of defections from the Labour party amongst Councillors who have not been re-selected to contest their seats. The opposition will be hoping that they will be successful in splitting the Labour vote.

Our analysis ranks the wards in the borough by the size of the majority of the sitting councillors. The assumption is that there is a uniform swing. This allows a prediction to be made as to which wards the opposition need to win to end Labour's control or win overall control of the Council. Obviously local factors may mean that the changes in votes for individual parties differs from ward to ward. In this analysis we have assumed that Labour retake the seats which they won with large majorities in 2002 but from which their Councillors subsequently defected.

This means that the key ward for the opposition would be Hanworth Park. Assuming Labour lost all the seats in the borough with a smaller majority that this one, the opposition would just need to take one seat in the ward to mean that the Council was under no-overall control. If this was the final result the Council could be controlled by a coalition of the the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and the Isleworth Community Group. The only other likely combination is a Lib-Lab pact. Ken Livingstone has called Lib Dems to end their alliance with the Conservatives within London and work with Labour to reflect the capital 'progressive majority' of voters. He said it was time to reflect an 'anti-tory majority' implying that voting Lib Dem would let in the Conservatives

In the Brentford, Isleworth and Chiswick wards most of the sitting councillors enjoy sizeable majorities and it would take significant swing to for them to change hands. Syon ward however will be very closely fought. Labour held on with a slim majority last time. The Isleworth Community Group came second last time out but the Conservatives will also be hoping to win the seat with the Liberal Democrats not fielding a full slate of candidates.

Feltham West is a key ward if the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives win all the seats with smaller majorities than this one. They would need just one ward here to have joint overall control of the Council. If the Isleworth Community Group win in Syon then the Tories would need to take Feltham West and one seat in Heston Central to control the Council jointly with the Liberal Democrats.

For the Conservatives to take overall control of the borough they would have to go deep into Labour held territory. Assuming they win Syon and all the other wards with majorities of less than 20%, then their next targets are likely to be Heston East, Hounslow South or Brentford. In the first two the Labour vote may be split by dissident members of the Labour party who are standing as independent Councillors. In Heston East the Conservatives will be encouraged by a by-election in 2004 where they reduce the Labour majority to 11.6% With the Liberal Democrats not putting up a full list of candidates the aim appears to be to concentrate the opposition vote.

Current Sitting Councillors and Their Majorities

Ward	Lab	Con	Lib Dem	Ind	Majority %	Comments on ward
Hounslow South	2	1	0	0	1.6	Labour won back one seat from the Conservatives in an October 2002 by-election with opposition vote split between Conservatives and Isleworth Community Group
Bedfont	1	0	1	1	4.1	Liberal Democrat Councillor defected to Hounslow Independent Alliance who will be fielding three candidates. Top target in the borough for Lib Dems.
Syon	3	0	0	0	4.3	Three way fight in this ward between Labour, the Conservatives and the Isleworth Community Group.
Feltham North	2	1	0	0	5.3	Conservatives only fielded one candidate last time who topped the poll. Will be fielding three this time
Hanworth Park	3	0	0	0	10.0	Council leader, Colin Ellar's seat. Last time out the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives split their vote between them. This time only one Liberal Democrat is standing.
Assuming Labour lose all their seats in the ward then the opposition just need to take one seat in Hanworth Park to stop Labour retaining control of the Council.
Hanworth	0	0	3	0	10.3	With only one Conservative candidate standing as opposed to three last time, the Liberal Democrats will be confident of holding this ward.
Osterley and Spring Grove	0	3	0	0	14.4	Conservatives held seat comfortably in August 2005 by-election
Feltham West	3	0	0	0	18.1	Another seat which last time around the opposition fielded a full slate of candidates but this time the Liberal Democrats are only fielding one.
Assuming the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats took all the seats with smaller majorities than this one they would only need one seat in Feltham West to have joint control of the Council
Heston Central	3	0	0	0	21.3	Three Independent Alliance candidates are standing which the Conservatives will be hoping will split Labour's vote.
Isleworth	0	0	0	3	21.5	Stronghold of the Isleworth Community group
Chiswick Homefields	0	3	0	0	24.2	Conservatives expected to hold. The ward did have a Labour Councillor up until 2002 but issues such as parking have swung voters to the Conservatives
Hounslow Heath	1	0	0	2	25.0	Labour won three seats in this ward unopposed. 25% majority is an estimate. One Councillor - former leader John Connelly - subsequently defected to Hounslow Independent Alliance . Dalbir Cheema the Mayor has also resigned the Labour whip following his non-selection. Both will recontest the seat. Cllr Connelly with three other HIA members and Cllr Cheema as an Independent. The Conservative will hope these splits in the Labour party will allow them to win this seat with the Liberal Democrats only fielding one candidate
Brentford	2	0	0	1	25.5	Brentford FC supporter group have stood down in this ward
Heston East	3	0	0	0	28.9	Labour held on to a seat in this ward in a by-election in November 2004 with a majority of 11.6%
Assuming the Conservatives won all their target seats up to Heston Central then they would just need one seat in either Hounslow Heath, Heston East or Brentford to gain overall control of the Council
Chiswick Riverside	0	3	0	0	29.0	Conservatives held seat in by-election
Cranford	1	0	0	2	30.7	Two Labour Councillor defected to Hounslow Independent Alliance when they were not re-selected. The group is field three candidates which may split the Labour vote but there is a large majority to overturn.
Turnham Green	0	3	0	0	31.3	Ward returned a Labour candidate the election before last but issues such as parking charges look set to guarantee Conservative win.
Hounslow Central	1	0	0	2	33.6	Two Labour Councillors defected to Hounslow Independent Alliance when they were not re-selected. They will be recontesting this seat with one other HIA candidate
Heston West	3	0	0	0	38.7	Labour hold in by election on September 2004 with sharply reduced majority
Hounslow West	3	0	0	0	48.1	Safe Labour seat
-	31	14	4	11	60	Labour's majority has been cut to 2 by defections

April 29, 2006