Is your seat a marginal?
Ward by ward analysis of voting in Ealing Borough
With the local elections fast approaching we have produced an analysis of the results for wards in the borough showing the majority of the sitting Councillors for each ward. The wards are ranked by the majority and if a uniform swing is assumed it makes it possible to predict which wards need to be won by the various parties in order to achieve their objectives.
A recent study by London Communications and the London School of Economics concluded that the Labour party would retain control of Ealing although they admitted that there was an outside chance of the Council switching to no overall control. Ealing is seen as a 'bellwether' borough and the party which wins control of it is also likely to win in the next general election.
The opposition must win 14 seats from the ruling Labour group to end their control of the Council. Acton looks set to be a key battle ground with six of these target seats in the East Acton and Acton Central wards. The Conservatives will be hoping that hostility in the area to the tram will result in a big enough swing to them to win these seats.
Assuming that the swing in votes is uniform across all wards then the opposition must win all the seats in Perivale and Northfield as well as the two Acton wards plus at least two seats in the Greenford Broadway ward which is represented by Council leader Leonora Thomson. The majority of Labour over the Conservatives in this ward is 18.8% but for the second seat to change hands it would just require 250 voters to switch from Labour to Conservative.
For the Conservatives to win overall control they would need to have won all the seats in the wards mentioned so far plus all three seats in the Hobbayne ward (or two if they won the seat in Ealing Common from the Lib Dems.)
The Liberal Democrats are hoping to spring a surprise in South Acton using their strong base in Southfield ward. The issue of the loss of part of the South Acton recreation ground to property development plus the tram has led them to believe that they could perform strongly here. If they were to win in South Acton then the Council would change to no overall control if Acton Central and all the seats with a smaller majority were lost to Labour.
Wards listed by size of majority of sitting councillors
April 29, 2006