Will the West London tram increase traffic on your street?

Ealing Friends of the Earth is calling for the Mayor to go ahead with the West London tram scheme after publishing data which they say shows that very few roads will suffer from increased traffic.

They have renamed campaign group Save Ealing's Streets as 'Save 8 Streets' because they say that is the number of roads in the Ealing area which will see an increase in traffic.

The situation is less clear cut in the Acton and North Chiswick area but Friends of the Earth still say that many more roads will see a reduction in traffic or no change compared to those that see an increase. They also say that affected roads can have the effects of increased traffic flow mitigated by traffic calming measures.

They contradict claims that certain roads will be hard hit by increased traffic after the tram. Roads such as Churchfield Road, Bollo Bridge Road, Bollo Lane and The Avenue in Chiswick which are widely predicted to see log-jams of traffic will see no increase or less traffic if the tram is built according to these figures. The information on a road by road basis is detailed in a table below.

Christine Eborall from Ealing Friends of the Earth said: “Save Ealing’s Streets supporters don’t seem to realise that traffic in Ealing is set to keep on growing. Most streets will see more traffic without the tram than with it. With the tram, there will be money to spend on managing traffic in the affected roads. If the tram is stopped, there will be little or no money to manage traffic, so rat-running and congestion will increase. Is that what people really want?”

Will French of Save Ealing's Streets dismissed the validity of the numbers saying, "Figures quoted by FoE are based upon the results of traffic forecasts that are so unreliable that TfL will not discuss, explain or justify them. TfL has removed the forecasts from its website and they form no part of the documents currently being consulted on. No information has been provided about the assumptions that went into the forecasts but it is clear that they are based on TfL's highly questionable theory that traffic in West London will 'evaporate' once the tram has been built."

SES say that only around 6% of car journeys are replaced when new tram schemes are built. If this is the case for the West London Tram it will still mean around 25,000 vehicles a day trying to find a way along the Uxbridge Road corridor. They also point out that the study does not cover most roads in the area and say that the number of adversely affected roads would be considerably larger than stated by FOE. In addition the TfL numbers show a greater number of roads affected by an increase in traffic in off-peak periods.

Mr French added "FoE has broken the route down into 5 sectors which gives the impression that TfL is predicting fewer streets will be affected by major increases than is the case. Taking the entire length of the Uxbridge Road through the Borough of Ealing as a whole, TfL's predictions are that a total of 79 roads will experience an increase of more than 25% traffic during peak periods."

Ealing FoE have based their conclusions on extensive traffic modelling carried out by Transport for London. The original work was conducted by the consultants Scott Wilson.

The models cover a large area bounded generally by the A4/M4 (including Heathrow), A40/M40, M25 and Central London.

The models shows three scenarios:

1. The present day [2003] usage of the streets by all types of travellers
2. The 'With Tram' scenario which predicts the situation in 2011 if the tram is introduced along the Uxbridge Road and the 207 and 607 bus services removed
3. The 'No Tram' scenario which predicts the situation in 2011 without a tram but with the 207 bus service operated by bendy buses and at increased frequency [10 buses per hour]

Neither of the 2011 scenarios includes the following: Crossrail, major developments at White City, Southall Gas Works and Uxbridge Town Centre, Heathrow Terminal 5, possible extension to the Congestion Charging Zone, future parking restraints and charges. Neither do they include the impact of local traffic management of affected streets, except the 20mph zones which Ealing Council is already planning to put in place. Each scenario is produced for the peak period [7am - 10 am] and the interpeak period [10am - 4pm].

Ealing FoE have compared the 2011 With Tram and the 2011 Without Tram peak period scenarios (for the streets where data is available) for each of the centres along the Uxbridge Road. They say that without the tram, traffic along the Uxbridge Road will be unrestrained and is predicted to increase significantly, to the limits of its physical capacity. The surrounding residential streets are predicted to be used more as alternative routes, as drivers seek less congested routes.

West London Tram in Acton and Chiswick

Predicted % changes to traffic levels in 2011 compared with 2003 [peak period] for roads in Acton and North Chiswick

Predicted % increase / decrease in traffic levels between 2003 and 2011 [peak period]

Net benefit / disbenefit from tram

Symbol (the more *'s the better, the more o's the worse)

WITHOUT the tram WITH the tram

TRAM ROUTE [roads will all benefit from less traffic or no change]

1 High Street [Crown St to Market Place] 2.5 -7.5
10
*

High Street [Gunnersbury Lane to Steyne Rd] 2.5 -7.5
10
*

High Street [Market Place to Winchester St] 7.5 2.5
5
*

High Street [Salisbury St to Birkbeck Rd] 7.5 7.5
0
-

High Street [Steyne Rd to Crown St] 7.5 -17.5
25
**

High Street [Winchester St to Salisbury St] 17.5 7.5
10
*

2 The Vale [Birkbeck Rd to East Acton Lane] 17.5 7.5
10
*

The Vale [Bromyard Av to Old Oak Rd] -2.5 -30
27.5
**

The Vale [East Acton Lane to Lardon Rd] 17.5 -17.5
35
***

The Vale [Lardon Rd to Bromyard Av] 17.5 -2.5
20
**

3 Uxbridge Road [Birch Grove to Twyford Av] 7.5 -7.5
15
**

Uxbridge Road [Denehurst Gdns to Gunnersbury Lane] 7.5 2.5
5
*

Uxbridge Road [Hanger Lane to Birch Grove] 7.5 -17.5
25
**

Uxbridge Road [Twyford Av to Denehurst Gdns] 2.5 -17.5
20
**

WINNERS [roads that will benefit from less traffic WITH the tram]

4 Acton Lane [High St to Winchester St] -2.5 -17.5
15
**

Acton Lane [Southfield Rd to Beaconsfield Rd] -2.5 -7.5
5
*

5 Ashbourne Rd [Hanger Lane to Heathcroft] 2.5 -2.5
5
*

6 Beaconsfield Rd -2.5 -7.5
5
*

7 Bollo Bridge Rd 17.5 -2.5
20
**

8 Bollo Lane [Bollo Bridge Rd to Acton Lane] 17.5 7.5
10
*

Bollo Lane [Gunnersbury Lane to Bollo Bridge Rd] 7.5 -2.5
10
*

9 Crown St -2.5 -30
27.5
**

10 Hanger Vale Lane -2.5 -17.5
15
**

11 Heathcroft 2.5 -2.5
5
*

12 Horn Lane [Creswick Rd to Steyne Rd] 17.5 -2.5
20
**

Horn Lane [Friary Rd to Creswick Rd] 17.5 7.5
10
*

Horn Lane [Noel Rd to Friary Rd] 7.5 2.5
5
*

13 Old Oak Rd [Ashfield Rd to Uxbridge Road] 17.5 -17.5
35
***

14 Princes Gdns -2.5 -17.5
15
**

15 Queen's Drive [Princes Gdns to Saxon Drive] -7.5 -17.5
10
*

16 Steyne Rd 17.5 -17.5
35
***

17 Twyford Av [Creffield Rd to Stanway Gdns] 30 17.5
12.5
*

Twyford Av [Stanway Gdns to Uxbridge Road] 30 -30
60
***

18 Vale Lane -2.5 -17.5
15
**

NO CHANGE

1 Acton Lane [Beaconsfield Rd to Bollo Lane] 7.5 7.5
0
-

2 Ashbourne Rd [Heathcroft to Beaufort Rd] -2.5 -2.5
0
-

3 Bath Rd [Turnham Green] 17.5 17.5
0
-

4 Beaufort Rd -2.5 -2.5
0
-

5 Birch Grove 30 30
0
-

6 Canada Crescent 17.5 17.5
0
-

7 Churchfield Rd -17.5 -17.5
0
-

8 Corringway [Boileau Rd to Heathcroft] 17.5 17.5
0
-

Corringway [Hanger Lane to Boileau Rd] -30 -30
0
-

9 Creffield Rd [Hanger Lane to Wolverton Gdns] 30 30
0
-

10 East Churchfield Rd -7.5 -7.5
0
-

11 Friary Rd [Horn Lane to A40] 30 30
0
-

12 Gunnersbury Lane [Gunnnersbury Av to Bollo Lane] 2.5 2.5
0
-

13 Highfield Rd 17.5 17.5
0
-

14 Horn Lane [Leamington Park to A40] 2.5 2.5
0
-

Horn Lane [Leamington Park to Noel Rd] 7.5 7.5
0
-

15 Inglis Rd 30 30
0
-

16 Leamington Park 17.5 17.5
0
-

17 Lucy Crescent 17.5 17.5
0
-

18 Lynton Rd [Mayfield Rd to Horn Lane] -17.5 -17.5
0
-

Lynton Rd [Twyford Av to Mayfield Rd] 2.5 2.5
0
-

19 Market Place -30 -30
0
-

20 Noel Rd [Saxon Dr. to Horn Lane] 2.5 2.5
0
-

Noel Rd [Twyford Av to Saxon Dr.] 17.5 17.5
0
-

21 Old Oak Rd [Old Oak Common Lane to Ashfield Rd] 17.5 17.5
0
-

22 Queen's Drive [Hanger Lane to Princes Gdns] -7.5 -7.5
0
-

23 Saxon Drive 17.5 17.5
0
-

24 South Parade [Turnham Green] 17.5 17.5
0
-

25 Southfield Rd -30 -30
0
-

26 Stanway Gdns 30 30
0
-

27 The Avenue -30 -30
0
-

28 The Ridings -2.5 -2.5
0
-

29 Twyford Av [Noel Rd to Creffield Rd] 17.5 17.5
0
-

30 Wolverton Gdns 30 30
0
-

LOSERS [streets that will see increase in traffic levels WITH the tram] See Note 3

1 Acton Lane [Winchester St to Southfield Rd] -17.5 17.5
-35
ooo

2 Ashfield Rd -30 2.5
-32.5
ooo

3 Avenue Rd -2.5 17.5
-20
oo

4 Birkbeck Rd 7.5 17.5
-10
o

5 Bromyard Av [Ashfield Rd to The Vale] 2.5 30
-27.5
oo

Bromyard Av [Glendun Rd to Ashfield Rd] -2.5 30
-32.5
ooo

6 Creffield Rd [Twyford Av to Rosemont Rd] 2.5 30
-27.5
oo

Creffield Rd [Wolverton Gdns to Twyford Av] -7.5 30
-37.5
ooo

7 Creswick Rd -17.5 30
-47.5
ooo

8 East Acton Lane [East Churchfield Rd to Glendun Rd]* -7.5 17.5
-25
oo

East Acton Lane [Glendun Rd to Old Oak Common Lane]* 2.5 17.5
-15
oo

East Acton Lane [The Vale to East Churchfield Rd] 2.5 30
-27.5
oo

9 Friars Way 2.5 30
-27.5
oo

10 Friary Rd [A40 to Friars Way] 2.5 30
-27.5
oo

11 Goldsmith Av 17.5 30
-12.5
o

12 Goldsmith Rd 17.5 30
-12.5
o

13 Grafton Rd 17.5 30
-12.5
o

14 Langley Drive -2.5 17.5
-20
oo

15 Lardon Rd 7.5 30
-22.5
oo

16 Mayfield Rd -30 30
-60
ooo

17 Rosemont Rd 17.5 30
-12.5
o

18 Winchester St 2.5 17.5
-15
oo

LOSERS[main roads]

19 Gunnersbury Lane [Bollo Lane to Denehurst Gdns] -2.5 2.5
-5
o

Gunnersbury Lane [Denehurst Gdns to High St] 2.5 30
-27.5
oo

20 Horn Lane [Steyne Rd to Churchfield Rd] -7.5 17.5
-25
oo

Source: area maps showing traffic modelling by Scott Wilson for Transport for London, presented at Local Consultation Groups Round 6* = data looks improbable

Note 1: the roads shown are representative of the immediate area and not necessarily of the individual street.

Note 2: the modelling data shows traffic increases / decreases in ranges; we have taken the mid-point of each and a value of 30 for the 25%+ range

Note 3: roads which are projected to see increases in traffic will have the effects mitigated by traffic management measures