New report predicts Labour will lose Ealing

Study by educational bulletin says tram will be a factor

The Untangled Web has released its Guide to the 2006 Local Elections which includes a complete council-by-council set of predictions for next Thursday’s local elections. In it they are predicting that Labour will lose overall control of Ealing Borough.

The predictions have been compiled using a combination of past and current voting trends together with information gathered from people on the ground. Their conclusions contradicted an early report by the London Communications Agency which said that Labour would hold onto Ealing despite predicting widespread losses across the capital.

Gareth Knight, Head of Projecting Politics, which runs the Untangled Web, said, " We have received feelers from the borough that the tram project could sway even more voters into voting for someone other than Labour than the national swing though we do not think the project is likely to deliver an outright Conservative majority."

Ealing council is predicted to go 'No Overall Control' (NOC) because Labour only need to lose 14 council seats to lose control. The report says they are vulnerable in following wards: Acton Central, East Acton, Greenford Broadway, Hobbayne, North Greenford, Northfield, Perivale. These 7 wards represent 21 council seats. It is therefore highly likely according to the authors, that given national swing, 14 of these 21 are likely to be lost.

The are also predicting that the Conservatives will lose Richmond to the Liberal Democrats and that Labour will lose overall control of Hounslow.

The report is not all good news for David Cameron however as it states that, “ the Conservatives have to perform exceptionally well at this year’s local elections to deliver any genuine mood that the Conservatives are preparing for national government. This is because the period 1993 to 1996 was exceptionally bad as the deeply unpopular Conservative government was punished in local elections to the point of almost being wiped out.”

The Untangled Web is a weekly bulletin sent via e-mail to schools for use as a teaching resource or as a handout in schools. There are presently over 2,000 schools which receive the bulletin. It combines topical news with the curriculum for both Politics and Citizenship lessons.

Gareth said, “This is the first fully comprehensive guide to a set of local elections specifically aimed at increasing interest in them among people aged 15-18. Our publications are sent to hundreds of schools across the country every week and have a potential readership of over a million soon-to-be voters. We hope this publication will help people engage with and take an active interest in these elections.”

The report is available online at www.untangledweb.org.uk

This web site has produced a ward by ward guide to the borough elections in Hounslow showing which are likely to be the key wards in the election. Click here to see more details.

April 28, 2006